Hayes’ Essay ’Four, Seven’ Predicts Trump-Led Fed Takeover and Its Impact on Credit Markets

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has released a provocative essay titled 'Four, Seven,' expanding on his Korea Blockchain Week speech. The piece analyzes a potential Donald Trump-led overhaul of the Federal Reserve, drawing parallels to WWII-era yield curve control policies.

Hayes connects Trump's political strategy with Buffalo Bill Bessent's economic vision, which aims to redirect credit creation toward regional banks and small businesses. The essay contrasts the steep yield curve of the 1940s—when the Fed capped long-term bond yields at 2.5%—with today's flatter curve, arguing the current system disproportionately benefits Wall Street over Main Street.

Bessent's proposed shift would empower regional lenders to fund SMEs, which employ 46% of U.S. workers. Hayes wryly labels this approach 'QE for Poor People,' suggesting it could reshape financial hierarchies if implemented under a second TRUMP administration.